Tornado Watch #17 Includes Macon County

***TORNADO WATCH IN MACON COUNTY***

 Will last until 4pm today.

 SEL9
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 19
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   810 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
          FAR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
          FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH CAROLINA
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 810 AM UNTIL
   400 PM EST.
   
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
   TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
   ATHENS GEORGIA TO 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF MACON GEORGIA.  FOR
   A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 14...WW 15...WW 16...WW
   17...WW 18...
   
   DISCUSSION...PRE-FRONTAL BANDS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS MORNING FROM CNTRL/ERN AL INTO WRN
   GA...AS LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS ENHANCED DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
   UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  THE 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM BHM AND FFC SHOWED THE
   PRESENCE OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM AROUND
   250 J/KG OVER NRN GA...TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER CNTRL AL.  THE ONSET
   OF BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
   INSTABILITY TODAY...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OBSERVED BY THESE SOUNDINGS...THE SETUP WILL BE
   SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
   GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.
   MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22040.
   
   
   ...MEAD

**UPDATE 8.28AM**

Probabilities Chart:

Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes 

Mod (50%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

Mod (30%)


Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

Mod (30%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Mod (30%)


Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

Low (<5%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

Low (<5%)


Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (70%)



For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), "Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.