Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Mesoscale Discussion #93

Mesoscale Discussion 93

Heads Up! this means we may be getting a Tornado Watch in a bit...

I am not expecting any tornadoes in Macon County, but you never know.

What I am concerned about is the winds that could topple trees on houses, cars and power lines.


   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0093
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0638 AM CST WED JAN 30 2013
 
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN OH...ERN KY...WRN WV...FAR SWRN VA AND    ERN TN
 
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 15...17...
 
   VALID 301238Z - 301415Z
 
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 15...17...CONTINUES.
 
   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS PERSISTS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OH...ERN KY...AND ERN TN...WITH THIS THREAT REACHING SERN OH...WRN WV AND FAR SWRN VA BETWEEN 13-14Z WHERE COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED ON THE NERN EXTENT OF WW 17.  IN ADDITION...A TORNADO THREAT ALSO CONTINUES...WITH PARTICULAR CONCERN INTO NWRN GA AS DISCRETE CELLS TRACK NEWD INTO THIS AREA FROM EAST CENTRAL-NERN AL.
 
   DISCUSSION...DESPITE A CONTINUED WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE UPPER TN THROUGH THE MIDDLE-UPPER OH VALLEY THIS MORNING...VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL MAINTAIN THE LINEAR STRUCTURE WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS. WSR-88D VWP DATA ALONG AND EAST OF THE LINE OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION TRAVERSING THIS REGION INDICATED SLY WINDS AT 70 KT AT 1 KM AGL.  THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE EWD MOTION OF THE LINE AT 40 KT AND INDIVIDUAL LINE/BOWING SEGMENTS TRACKING NEWD AT 50-60 KT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.  IN ADDITION...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SLY LLJ...STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH OF 500+ M2 PER S2/ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR TORNADOES.
 
   THE NRN EXTENT OF THE LINE ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL OH...THOUGH NOT PRODUCING LIGHTNING AT THIS TIME...COULD POSE A THREAT FOR A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS...MAINLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TO PERHAPS SERN OH.

   FARTHER TO THE N AND NE OVER NERN-EAST CENTRAL OH...THE INFLUX OF WEAKER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY TEND TO LIMIT STRONGER MOMENTUM FROM REACHING THE SURFACE.
 
   ..PETERS.. 01/30/2013

No comments:

Post a Comment